EIF Working Paper 2025/107 - Economic impact assessment of the COSME Loan Guarantee Facility: evidence from Belgium, France and Italy

This paper assesses the impact of the COSME Loan Guarantee Facility (LGF) on SMEs in Belgium, France, and Italy between 2015 and 2023. Using advanced econometric methods, we compare SMEs that received a guarantee with a control group of similar companies and find that beneficiaries experienced higher growth in total assets, sales, employment, and both tangible and intangible fixed assets three years after the signature year. The analysis also shows that guaranteed loans improve firms’ survival prospects, without adverse long-term effects on productivity. Moreover the study highlights that the effects tend to be larger for smaller and younger firms.

This study is part of our ongoing effort to design and implement a comprehensive Impact Assessment Framework. Ex-post evaluations, such as this report, provide essential evidence for shaping future support measures and improving the accuracy of impact forecasts.